PREDICTING MUSIC SALES VIA COMPUTER MODELING Coopers & Lybrand is using a computer modeling software program that uses 50,000 “agents” to predict which music CDs will hit the charts and climb to the top. The 30,000-line program contains information such as age, income level, domicile, gender and buying habits for each imaginary music consumer based on Census Bureau and market research data. After plugging in some parameters for each CD, such as how popular the group is already, the program spits out the answer — yes, this one will sell, or no, that one’s a loser. The program attempts to overcome the shortcomings of straight spreadsheet prognostication, incorporating some of the chaos inherent in human affairs: “There are junctures that are very difficult to describe in mathematical equation,” says the project leader. “These are for very low-probability but potentially devastating events — for example, the rate of takeoff in fads. This program can write these complex equations itself.” (Forbes 7 Apr 97)