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A new economic computer model called Aspen is being hailed by economists as
the best thing thats come along in a long time for predicting and
analyzing macroeconomic data. The program, developed at Sandia National
Laboratories, creates a make-believe world comprising up to 10,000
households plus 1,500 factories. By manipulating certain factors,
economists can watch the behavior of the agents and use that data for
economic forecasting. Aspens results have turned up some surprises
during an economic slump, the firms learned to cooperate, says a Sandia
economist. We didnt put that into the software. But when things stayed
sour, the firms got together and helped each other out. The size of
Aspens world is vital: With thousands of players, you see behavior you
wouldnt get in macro models, says the softwares creator, who dreams of
models with 100,000 agents or more. The software is useful for analyzing
the causes of business cycles, both nationally
and in specific industries.
(Business Week 17 Mar 97)
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